An October Overview
This year has been nothing short of crazy. Think about the themes that have driven this market so far this year:
- A collapse, then recovery, in oil prices
- Higher interest rates
- China’s uncertain economy
- The most contentious election in the history of our country
Yet, the markets are up for the year in spite of significate volatility. The punches have been thrown and we are still standing. Believe it or not, this year is actually following a pretty succinct historical script. Absent an election year, equity markets generally trend higher until the seasonally weak September/October months. However, during an election year, equity market weakness tends to occur during the summer months and subside as the November election draws near. Historically, markets then rally into year end and the market so far has followed this pattern. With this precedent we believe the markets could trade higher into year end.