A January Overview

I, for one, am very thankful 2016 is behind us.  Don’t get me wrong, the capital markets finished the year with solid gains.  But, it was a year with volatility reemerging as the dominant theme.  Perhaps the year’s silver lining is economic activity accelerated the second half of 2016 in the US and abroad.  In fact, December US business surveys have risen to the highest levels since late 2014, which gives us hope for 2017.  

​We are expecting global growth to increase from 2.5% in 2016 to 2.9% in 2017.  As well, our outlook is skewed to more upside risks, including a more expansionary fiscal policy in major developed economies.  Additionally, we expect pickup in private investment as a result of improvements in sentiment and leading indicators.  As always, there’s a downside risk.  We feel the main risks lie in the potential for disruptive trade policy in the US, rising populism in Europe, and imbalances in China linked to rapidly rising debt and capital outflows.

​The new administration will likely announce a package of infrastructure spending and tax reforms.  The growth impact is still a bit cloudy, as it depends on the composition and timing of the package, as well, as the multiplier effect within the US and global economies.

 One of the fundamental proxies we follow is market multiples.  Most market multiples became stretched toward the later part of 2016.  Typically, when markets trade “rich” the upside becomes pretty limited.  But, there are several reasons we believe that may not hold true in our current environment.  A few of them are:

  •  ​Risks are not one-sided, as there are several sources of potential upside surprise in the economy.
  •  ​Longer-term momentum signals are consistent with further upside.
  •  ​We see little evidence of equity market euphoria, a typical condition at market peaks. 


A December Overview

The markets have been nothing short of a roller coaster ride this year.  But, post-election, we have seen a strong run to new highs backed by very strong market internals.  Barring anything unforeseen, we should end the year on positive footing.  Moving into 2017, there are two main themes we are focused on:

  1. The economy (GDP growth) – This one seems pretty simplistic.  But, what we are really looking for is consistency.  The economy grew at 3% in the 3rd quarter, which is the first time we have experienced that in the last two years.  We would like to see the economy show more consistent growth. 
  2. Interest rates – the FED raised rates this month and most people expect them to continue to raise rates in 2017.  Our internal forecast is for three hikes next year. 

As we reflect on this holiday season, we wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas and the very best of good health and prosperity in the New Year.

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As your investment professional, we are committed to delivering performance in a manner that is consistent with your needs, goals and desires. Headquartered in Orlando Florida, Delta Advisory Group serves clients throughout the United States.